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SOUTH AFRICA AVOIDS CREDIT DOWNGRADE FOR NOW

Posted By IRMSAInsight, 19 June 2016

20 June 2016

 

SOUTH AFRICA AVOIDS CREDIT DOWNGRADE FOR NOW

 

 

 

South Africa’s Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan, was correct in his assessment at the start of the month - in relation to the country’s potential credit rating downgrading to junk by Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Global Ratings, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings Ltd. - stating that “I think we’ve done enough to pass the June hurdle.” This follows Fitch becoming the third agency on 8 June to reaffirm South Africa’s investment grade credit rating and maintained its stable outlook. Minister in the Presidency for Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, Jeff Radebe, is positive that the country can avoid a junk status rating in future asserting that "South Africa is implementing programmes from the National Development Plan (NDP), which will ensure that the country remains an investment destination.” When looking at these credit ratings it is important to remember that South Africa has been given the lowest investment grade and that pacifying ratings agencies does not mask very real economic problems. These concerns include slow economic growth, political and social instability, protracted strikes, and political wrangling that prevents economic policy uncertainty. 

  

 As a Risk Manager:

  • Have you considered how emerging risks, such as the recent terror alert for South African malls and popular public areas, may affect the country’s economy?
  • Do you think that South Africa will successfully fend off a junk credit rating in six months’ time when the next review takes place?
  • Will you continue to analyse and report what the impact of potential downgrades for South Africa will be for your organisation up until the next review?

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